UN Warns the World Needs a 60% Cut by 2035 but Is Only on Track for 10% as Trillions in Policy and Investment Hang in the Balance

The UN says global greenhouse-gas output is on course to fall only about 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels—far short of the ~60% decline consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C. That shortfall will shape how governments write rules and how investors deploy capital into grids, storage, clean heat and adaptation heading into COP30 in Belém.

So far 64 countries have submitted final plans that cover roughly ~30% of global emissions. Even after the UN adds a “wider picture” of announced but not yet filed targets from major emitters, the math still lands at only ~−10% by 2035. China—responsible for about 29% of global emissions—has sketched a 7–10% reduction from its eventual peak by 2035, while Europe continues to refine its 2035 pathway; neither closes the gap to a 1.5°C-aligned trajectory. Market read-through: this would be the first sustained global decline in emissions, but it is still not nearly fast enough.

A 10% path implies absolute declines this decade, helped by cheaper solar, rapid EV and heat-pump uptake and power-sector switching. Yet it leaves a ~50-point shortfall to the −60% needed by 2035, raising the odds of a temporary temperature overshoot and bigger adaptation bills for floods, storms and heat. UN climate chief Simon Stiell’s line: the direction is improving, but the world must pick up the pace. Expect tougher 2030–2035 standards across power, buildings and transport, plus larger adaptation budgets.

Watch three numbers: 10% (what’s baked in), 60% (what’s needed), and 64 (plans filed, ~30% of emissions). Policy hardening, faster grid/storage capex and rising adaptation finance are the logical next steps as negotiators try to close a multi-gigaton gap at COP30.